Is There Really a "Big Four"?

Yesterday's match between Djokovic and Murray reminded us all once again of the increasingly awkward phrase, the "Big Four" in men's tennis.

Djokovic dominated Murray (6-2, 6-3), and the result added to Murray's string of recent disappointing performances since coming back from back surgery, especially in matches against the other members of the Big Four (since 2014, Murray is 0-for-11 against Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic).

More generally, though, it's worth stepping back and asking whether Murray's admittance into the Mount Rushmore of current men's tennis was premature.  Here are the number of career titles each man has won:

Name	Age	Overall	Majors	Masters	WTF
Roger Federer	33	84	17	23	6
Rafael Nadal	28	65	14	27	0
Novak Djokovic	27	49	8	20	4
Andy Murray	27	31	2	9	0

Despite being in the same generation as Nadal and Djokovic, Murray has accomplished much less, with his number of major titles the most glaring outlier.  We can also focus less on volume and look at the following winning percentages (overall, against the top 10, and against the other members of the Big Four):

Name	Overall	Top 10	Big Four
Roger Federer	0.864	0.655	0.452
Rafael Nadal	0.834	0.679	0.642
Novak Djokovic	0.813	0.633	0.505
Andy Murray	0.762	0.526	0.358

Murray does not fare much better here and has a losing H2H record against the other three men in this group (note that Federer actually has a winning H2H record against Djokovic, but has a worse percentage in the Big Four category than Djokovic due to Federer's dismal record against Nadal).

For me, though, the most telling statistics involve the year-end rankings.  The following indicates the number of times each man has finished the year at (1) number one, (2) in one of the top two spots, (3) in one of the top three spots, and (4) in one of the top four spots.

Name	Top 1	Top 2	Top 3	Top 4
Roger Federer	5	10	11	11
Rafael Nadal	3	8	9	10
Novak Djokovic	3	4	8	8
Andy Murray	0	0	1	6

Murray has never finished in the top two and has only finished in the top three one time.  Murray has finished #4 five times, so he clearly has been the fourth best player in the world for a number of years.  And Murray's overall performance does distinguish him from all those below him in the game right now.  But, for me, it's still just a Big Three for the time being.